Geoeconomics: Where Policy Moves Markets
With Josh Lipsky - Atlantic Council, GeoEconomics Center
In Episode 2 of Exiger Exchange, Kit Conklin speaks with Atlantic Council's Josh Lipsky about the financial infrastructure behind economic statecraft: SWIFT, banking networks, payment rails, dollar settlement, sanctions, tariffs, and the systems being built to route around them.
“We are living in a geoeconomic era. Will it last forever? I don’t know, but it’s definitely going to last for the next 10 or 20 years, from my perspective.”
The Conversation
One point is especially clear for business: geoeconomics now affects how money moves, how markets stay open, and how governments can pressure businesses through finance, trade, and technology.
Kit Conklin
Chief Strategy & Global Affairs Officer, Exiger
Kit Conklin is a seasoned expert in technology, policy, and national security. He served as a Senior Advisor to the U.S. House Select Committee on China and is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council.
Josh Lipsky
Vice President & Chair, International Economics; Senior Director, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council
Josh Lipsky leads Atlantic Council’s work on the future of money, sanctions, and the global financial system. He previously served as an advisor at the International Monetary Fund, the White House, and the U.S. State Department.
What This Means For Companies
Geoeconomics is no longer a policy conversation happening outside the business.
It now affects payment systems, sanctions exposure, currency risk, capital flows, supplier decisions, tariffs, and market access.
For boards, treasury teams, compliance leaders, and operators, the practical question is where the company is exposed when governments use financial systems, trade rules, export controls, or investment restrictions as tools of national power.
Payment Systems
Sanctions & Tariffs
Capital Flows
Market Access
01
Treat financial infrastructure as a dependency
Payment rails, banks, currencies, settlement systems, and sanctions exposure should be assessed alongside suppliers and logistics networks.
02
Plan for non-dollar pressure
In some markets, companies may face pressure to use non-dollar payment systems, including payments denominated in China’s currency.
03
Watch the rails before the volume arrives
Alternative payment systems can look marginal until liquidity, regulation, and commercial incentives start moving through them.
04
Track sanctions exposure beyond named parties
Evasion often moves through intermediaries, subsidiaries, counterparties, payment routes, and beneficial ownership structures.
05
Expect more economic-security tools
Sanctions, export controls, tariffs, asset freezes, outbound investment restrictions, and sector-specific rules are expanding.
06
Monitor Brussels, not just Washington
The EU is building its own economic security toolkit, especially around Chinese overcapacity and strategic industrial capacity.
07
Build scenarios around market access
Currency requirements, payment system rules, tariffs, data center restrictions, and export controls can affect whether and how companies operate in key markets.
08
Connect treasury, compliance, supply chain, and government affairs
These risks cut across functions. Treating them separately can miss how exposure moves through the business.
09
Prepare for a long transition
Josh’s view is that the geoeconomic era is likely to last 10 to 20 years, not one policy cycle.
10
Engage policy early
Companies that wait for rules to be finalized will have fewer options. The better posture is to understand exposure, model impact, and communicate practical constraints before policy hardens.
Where Geoeconomic Pressure Could Hit Business Next
Financial Infrastructure
Payment systems, banking networks, settlement rails, and dollar exposure are becoming sources of leverage.
Market Access
Tariffs, currency requirements, export controls, and investment restrictions can change the terms of doing business in key markets.
Industrial Capacity
Governments are using policy to protect strategic sectors, including chips, autos, AI infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing.
Compliance and Evasion Risk
Sanctions and export controls increasingly require visibility into counterparties, beneficial ownership, intermediaries, and payment routes.
Inside the Episode
From physical chokepoints to financial infrastructure.
Josh Lipsky of Atlantic Council opens with a useful reset: geoeconomics isn’t a new concept. It combines national security, foreign policy, macroeconomics, finance, and the tools governments use to apply pressure. What has changed is where that pressure now shows up — inside global finance, technology markets, supply chains, and the daily decisions companies make about where they sell, source, invest, and operate.
The conversation moves from familiar physical chokepoints to the financial infrastructure companies rely on to move money. Josh points to SWIFT, banks, dollar settlement, payment rails, and alternative systems being built outside the dollar-based network as places where the next pressures may emerge.
GEOECONOMICS =
National Security
Foreign Policy
Macroeconomics
Finance
Tools governments use to apply pressure
Exposure Cuts Across Functions
The Planning Problem
A single policy decision — a payment requirement, investment restriction, tariff, or sanctions action — can change how a business sells, sources, finances, or operates. The throughline is practical: financial infrastructure is now part of business risk.
Companies do not need to predict every move by Washington, Brussels, or Beijing. They need to identify where they have limited visibility, few substitutes, concentrated exposure, or contractual obligations that could become harder to meet if financial or trade rules change quickly. Geoeconomics now belongs in business planning because it can affect revenue, sourcing, financing, compliance, and market access at the same time.
Finance/Treasury
Currency requirements, payment rails, and settlement risk become live variables — not back-office plumbing.
Supply Chain
Visibility into inputs, suppliers, and end markets that could be re-priced or cut off by sudden policy shifts.
Commercial
Where market access depends on new financial or regulatory conditions, not just demand and price.
Government Affairs
Which tools policymakers are likely to use next — not only the rules already on the books.
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