Exiger Exchange Episode I | The Supply Chain Risks Behind the Trump–Xi Summit

Q: READ THE EXCERPT

Kit Conklin“Explain a little bit more about what you think is going to happen over the next year or two. We’ve got the Trump–Xi summit coming up in the next few weeks. What’s going to happen?” Chris Miller“Well, I think the Trump–Xi summit is part of a truce, but far from the end of the competition between China and the U.S. And if anything, the competition has intensified over the last eighteen months, even if it looks like summit followed by summit and handshakes all around. The reason it has intensified is precisely because of this expansion of the competition across different supply chains. Some people look at supply chain conflict and suggest the solution is to make supply chains simpler. But that is not going to happen, because technology will not allow it and economics makes it impossible. We do see all of the world’s key governments, not just Beijing and Washington, but the Europeans and the Japanese, looking at supply chains as a source of vulnerability but also strategic advantage, and asking themselves: what leverage can I gain from my position in supply chains and what leverage over me can my adversaries gain? What we have seen repeatedly over the last couple of years is that supply chains have been weaponized by all of these countries to achieve their goals. They are all right now studying supply chains, trying to understand the chemicals industry and the electronics industry and find choke points that we do not yet know exist, so that they are ready when it is time to pull out the next card in their relations with their competitors. This politicization of supply chains is here to stay, alongside the reality that we are going to rely on complicated supply chains that cross national borders for as long as we can see into the future.” Excerpt lightly edited from transcript for readability.

Exiger Exchange | Podcast Preview

The Supply Chain Risks Behind the Trump–Xi Summit

Their meeting may potentially reset the tone between Washington and Beijing. It will not simplify the supply chains behind AI infrastructure, electronics, transportation, defense systems, and critical manufacturing—or remove the choke points governments are already studying and businesses are already navigating.

“Supply chains have been weaponized by all of these countries to achieve their goals.”

- Chris Miller, New York Times Best-Selling Author, "Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology"

Kit Conklin

“Explain a little bit more about what you think is going to happen over the next year or two. We’ve got the Trump–Xi summit coming up in the next few weeks. What’s going to happen?”

Chris Miller

“Well, I think the Trump–Xi summit is part of a truce, but far from the end of the competition between China and the U.S. And if anything, the competition has intensified over the last eighteen months, even if it looks like summit followed by summit and handshakes all around.

The reason it has intensified is precisely because of this expansion of the competition across different supply chains. Some people look at supply chain conflict and suggest the solution is to make supply chains simpler. But that is not going to happen, because technology will not allow it and economics makes it impossible.

We do see all of the world’s key governments, not just Beijing and Washington, but the Europeans and the Japanese, looking at supply chains as a source of vulnerability but also strategic advantage, and asking themselves: what leverage can I gain from my position in supply chains and what leverage over me can my adversaries gain?

What we have seen repeatedly over the last couple of years is that supply chains have been weaponized by all of these countries to achieve their goals. They are all right now studying supply chains, trying to understand the chemicals industry and the electronics industry and find choke points that we do not yet know exist, so that they are ready when it is time to pull out the next card in their relations with their competitors.

This politicization of supply chains is here to stay, alongside the reality that we are going to rely on complicated supply chains that cross national borders for as long as we can see into the future.”

Excerpt lightly edited from transcript for readability.

The Conversation

In this preview, Kit and Chris look past summit headlines to the operational questions companies need to ask: which inputs, suppliers, data flows, and production dependencies could be affected as governments apply new restrictions and exploit choke points.

Kit Conklin

Chief Strategy & Global Affairs Officer, Exiger

Kit Conklin is a seasoned expert in technology, policy, and national security. He served as a Senior Advisor to the U.S. House Select Committee on China and is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Chris Miller

New York Times Best-Selling Author & Professor

Chris Miller is author of “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology”, a professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Where Supply Chain Pressure Could Surface

Chips and AI Infrastructure

Advanced chips, data centers, compute access, and AI systems are central to U.S.–China technology competition.

Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

Export controls and concentrated production can affect automotive, electronics, defense, and energy supply chains.

Chemicals and Electronics

Governments are studying inputs that may appear several tiers below finished products but still determine production continuity.

Smart Vehicles and Sensor Data

Connected vehicles introduce supply chain, software, communications, and data governance concerns that extend beyond traditional manufacturing risk.

EPISODE ALERT

Get the Full Episode Alert

The Exiger Exchange podcast is for leaders who need to understand how geopolitical decisions can reach their suppliers, production lines, and compliance teams.

In the full episode, Kit Conklin and Chris Miller examine what the Trump–Xi summit may leave unresolved—including chip bottlenecks, rare earth restrictions, connected vehicle data, export controls, and the need to understand what to do once supply chain choke points are identified.

Exiger Exchange Episode I | The Supply Chain Risks Behind the Trump–Xi Summit