Executive Summary
America’s contested logistics operations in Ukraine and Afghanistan provide critical insight into the threats facing both government and private sector supply chains. This article, the first in a four-part series outlines a phased approach to managing supply chain risk — Pre-position, Evacuate, Rebuild, and Sustain — that evolved in real-time under hybrid and non-permissive threat conditions. As gray zone warfare, otherwise known as contested logistics becomes the norm, the U.S. government and companies must adopt military-grade supply chain practices, scenario planning, and AI-enabled tools like Exiger to ensure resilience.
This article draws on the real-world experience of Clinton West, CIA’s former Chief of Supply Chain Risk Management who led logistics efforts in Eastern Europe His work in conflict zones reinforces the core thesis: contested logistics must be anticipated, resourced, and adapted in real time.
What is the Gray Zone Threat
Gray zones blend elements of conventional warfare, cyber operations, disinformation, and infrastructure sabotage. U.S. operations in Ukraine revealed how fluid, asymmetric, and layered these threats can be. Traditional supply chain assumptions break down quickly in this environment. Control, visibility, and trust are often degraded or manipulated—making pre-crisis planning and rapid response essential.
Customer
Defense and government supply chain organizations
Challenges
Ensure a resilient supply chain throughout its lifecycle
Exiger Solutions
Due Diligence IQ (DDIQ), and Supply Chain Explorer (SCE) for continuous monitoring
Results
A strategic phased approach is key to developing a framework for critical materials throughout and personnel safety
A Four-Phased Framework for Contested Environments
Break down the phased approach: Pre–positioning, risk–based evacuation, surge response, and long–term sustainment as a base.
- Pre-Positioning: Trusted vendors and strategic goods should be staged in secure locations near potential conflict zones (e.g., Poland, Romania, Taiwan)
- Evacuation and Risk-based Withdrawal: Use dynamic threat assessments from DDIQ to prioritize extraction and ensure secure destruction or relocation of sensitive items.
- Surge & Rebuild: Re-establish logistics pipelines under new conditions using vendor vetting platform 1Exiger to validate suppliers in contested areas.
- Sustainment: Maintain operational tempo by contracting agilely for food, fuel, vehicles, and facilities. Use 1Exiger, DDIQ, and Supply Chain Explorer to monitor emerging threats and potential vulnerabilities in near real time.
Translating Military Lessons to Commercial Risk
The same gray zone dynamics in the military apply to U.S. pipelines, data centers, and port authorities. Organizations must be ready to pivot from mission continuity to operational resilience and survival. Contract surge capability, diversify sourcing, and invest in decision-support tools that can scan for opaque ownership and supply chain compromise.
They require readiness across the full operational lifecycle: Pre-Positioning, Evacuation, Reconstitution, and Sustainment.
During simulated emergency scenarios, rehearse scenarios from cyber disruptions, blockades, sabotage, and supply chain breakdowns. Consider conducting simulations — especially those that cross-pollinate government partners. These create institutional readiness and expose vendor and system weakness and vulnerabilities before they can be exploited.
Translating Military Lessons to Mission Resiliency
These phases — Pre-Positioning, Evacuation, Reconstitution, and Sustainment — mirror the real-world operational shifts needed to navigate contested logistics environments to enhance supply chain resilience while maintaining mission operations.
- Develop phased SCRM plans: Evacuate, Rebuild, Sustain
- Conduct joint exercises with suppliers and government
- Pre-screen vendors in potential gray zone geographies
- Equip field teams with 1Exiger for on-the-ground vetting
- Elevate logistics to a board-level risk conversation
Exiger: From Vendor Vetting to Operational Speed
The 1Exiger platform helps teams screen for adversarial links, geographic risk, and compliance flags. In locations like Ukraine and Somalia, having explainable risk scores and enabled onboarding of critical vendors within hours and in some cases minutes. With FedRAMP capability and regional tuning, it can bridge the intelligence gap between mission urgency and procurement caution.
The 1Exiger ecosystem, powered by DDIQ and Supply Chain Explorer, enables intelligence-led supplier screening by integrating structured and unstructured data sources to flag cyber risk, foreign ownership, and operational fragility across both managed and unmanaged supplier networks.
What's Next?
This article marks the first installment in a four-part series examining the foundational pillars of supply chain strategy during times of crisis:
Pre-Positioning, Evacuation, Reconstitution, and Sustainment. Each phase represents a pivotal moment for maintaining operational continuity and enhancing national resilience. As global disruptions become more frequent and severe, agency’s must adopt proactive and dynamic approaches to ensure their supply chains can adapt, recover, and thrive under pressure.
Throughout this series, we will explore how next-gen technologies—such as Exiger’s 1Exiger platform, DDIQ, and Supply Chain Explorer empower decision-makers to act swiftly and withgreater confidence.
